Astrodomain-Houston Astros
General Astros thought and opinion.Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Astros post-deadline analysis
After Jeff Luhnow’s purging of the major league roster, the
team’s minor league system received a needed boost of talent. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, JA Happ, Brett
Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Chris Johnson’s departures have established
legitimate depth in a system previously bereft of it.
The particulars:
07/04/12
Carlos Lee traded to Miami for AAA 3B Matt Dominguez and
AA LHP Rob Rasmussen.
07/20/12
RHP’s Brandon Lyon, David Carpenter and LHP JA Happ traded
to Toronto for RHP Francisco Cordero, OF Ben Francisco plus minor-league RHP’s
Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, LHP David Rollins, C Carlos Perez and a
player to be named.
07/21/12
RHP Brett Myers traded to Chicago (AL) for LHP Blair
Walters, RHP Matt Heidenreich and a player to be named.
07/25/12
LHP Wandy Rodriguez traded to Pittsburgh for OF Robbie Grossman
and LHP’s Rudy Owens and Colton Cain.
07/29/12
3B Chris Johnson traded to Arizona for OF Marc Krauss and 3B
Bobby Borchering.
Who reports where:
Oklahoma City - Matt
Dominguez and Rudy Owens.
Corpus Christi – Rob Rasmussen,
Asher Wojciechowski, Matt Heidenreich, Robbie Grossman, Marc Krauss and Bobby Borchering.
Lancaster – Colton Cain,
Blair Walters and Carlos Perez.
Lexington – David Rollins.
Greeneville – Joe Musgrove.
In particular, it seems Jeff Luhnow’s focus was
to add left-handed pitching.. Owens is
considered most major-league ready, and might see in Houston by season’s
end. Cain and Rasmussen will start in
their respective locations. Rollins will
continue his development in the Lexington bullpen.
Dominguez was recalled immediately to join the Astros
following his trade, but now holds down the hot corner in Oklahoma City. A second stint in Houston seems like a strong
possibility, if no later than the roster expansion in September. Borchering had been converted to outfield at
AA Visalia, but will return to third base with the Hooks.
To me, the most interesting pieces of the deal were
Wojciechowski, Perez, Krauss and Grossman.
A former first-round pick of Toronto, Wojciechowski ranked
just outside of the Jays blue-chip arms like Daniel Norris, Justin Nicolino and
Noah Syndegaard after a lackluster 2011.
2012 has seen him rebound with a WHIP number of 1.12 (with
Toronto). A strong finish could see him
start 2013 with the Redhawks.
Carlos Perez had the unfortunate luck of being a catcher in
a system rife with great catching talent. He has consistently posted an OPS in .800
range and could have developing doubles power.
His .984 career fielding
percentage and caught stealing percentage of 33% certainly point to him staying
behind the plate on a permanent basis.
A trade to Astros might have been Marc Krauss’ big
break. His power numbers are there with averages of
20 home runs, 70 runs batted in and an .859 OPS over three-plus minor league
seasons. What he doesn’t have is a
position. After 123 games in left field
in 2010, he has been shuttled between first base, third base and more of the
outfield, never playing more than 56 games at any one position in one
season. The Astros could have a large
amount of outfield turnover in 2013, and Krauss’ power could get him a shot in
2013, possibly as the right fielder.
Robbie Grossman - A Houston native, Grossman brings a solid
set of tools to the Corpus Christi outfield.
His power lies more in the doubles range with a career OPS of .767, but
his stolen base rate (68%) could use improvement if he wants to hold down a
spot at the top of a lineup.
some statistical analysis culled from baseball-reference.com
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Astros "make-good" trade targets
Jeff Luhnow seems to have an open mind when making trades. A Low-A catcher here (Jobduan Morales), power left-handed reliever (Kevin Chapman) or a toolsy rookie-league outfielder (DeAndre Toney).
What about players that are blocked, or have fallen out of favor with their organization. Who could be Luhnow's next Matt Dominguez?
Some "make-good" trade candidates for the Astros:
Travis Snider (OF - Toronto) - Snider is still young, but has seen large portions of playing time in 2009-11. He has toiled at AAA Las Vegas, yet has managed a .322/12/55 line waiting for an opportunity to spring with the Jays. He remained at AAA, even after the hand injury to Jose Bautista, getting passed over for Jays #2 prospect in outfielder Anthony Gose. Tao of Stieb agrees that Snider should be allowed to spread his wings. If obtained, Snider could likely become the Astros starting rightfielder. J
Dominic Brown (OF - Philadelphia) - Yearly trade bait, Brown's situation is similar to Snider's. Perhaps the Phillies see him as a replacement for Shane Victorino, or maybe Hunter Pence should Phillies decide to trim salary at the deadline. Almost 25, the bloom is off the rose for Brown, and that could lower his value in trade a bit.
Brian Matusz (SP - Baltimore) - The Orioles first-round pick in 2008, Matusz was demoted to AAA after beginning the year 5-10, a 5.42 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. His best work came in 2010, when he notched 10 wins on a last-place Baltimore club. Jeff Luhnow could see him as a replacement for Wandy Rodriguez, should he be moved to the Orioles or another club.
What about players that are blocked, or have fallen out of favor with their organization. Who could be Luhnow's next Matt Dominguez?
Some "make-good" trade candidates for the Astros:
Travis Snider (OF - Toronto) - Snider is still young, but has seen large portions of playing time in 2009-11. He has toiled at AAA Las Vegas, yet has managed a .322/12/55 line waiting for an opportunity to spring with the Jays. He remained at AAA, even after the hand injury to Jose Bautista, getting passed over for Jays #2 prospect in outfielder Anthony Gose. Tao of Stieb agrees that Snider should be allowed to spread his wings. If obtained, Snider could likely become the Astros starting rightfielder. J
Dominic Brown (OF - Philadelphia) - Yearly trade bait, Brown's situation is similar to Snider's. Perhaps the Phillies see him as a replacement for Shane Victorino, or maybe Hunter Pence should Phillies decide to trim salary at the deadline. Almost 25, the bloom is off the rose for Brown, and that could lower his value in trade a bit.
Brian Matusz (SP - Baltimore) - The Orioles first-round pick in 2008, Matusz was demoted to AAA after beginning the year 5-10, a 5.42 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. His best work came in 2010, when he notched 10 wins on a last-place Baltimore club. Jeff Luhnow could see him as a replacement for Wandy Rodriguez, should he be moved to the Orioles or another club.
Monday, July 09, 2012
23 days left - where does Wandy go?
Since I was 25% correct in naming Carlos Lee's eventual destination, I figured I'd try my hand at finding a home for Wandy Rodriguez.
His contract:
2012 - $10 million, of which approximately $5 million is still owed.
2013 - $13 million.
2014 - $13 million. This year becomes a player option if Rodriguez is traded during the length of the deal.
The market:
The addition of the second wild-card slot in each league keeps more teams in the playoff race, hence (potentially) more buyers. Those new to contention like Baltimore or Pittsburgh can now compete with richer markets for coveted arms and bats. The Cubs likely have Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster for sale, while the Brewers are mulling an auction for pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. It might be smart to move Wandy before the market is flooded with quality starting pitching.
Interested parties:
Baltimore - The Orioles have been in contact with the Astros regarding Wandy as recently as July 7th. They currently sit in second place in the competitive AL East, firmly entrenched for one of the wild-card spots. Pitchers Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter were demoted, leaving Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen as anchors at the top of the rotation.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Parker Bridwell, LHP Tim Berry and LHP Mike Belfiore.
Texas - The two-time defending AL champs will have two strong options in Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, but Derek Holland has been hurt and inconsistent and Roy Oswalt plain bad. They will ask Philadelphia about Cole Hamels and Milwaukee about Zack Greinke.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Cody Buckel (AA), RHP Luke Jackson (A-Advanced) and C Brett Nicholas (A-Advanced).
Toronto - No fault of a stout middle of the order anchored by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus, the Jays stand mired in last place in the AL East. Three of their starters are on the disabled list, with one out until next year in Kyle Drabek. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said he prefers players with multiple years of club control remaining beyond this one, something Jeff Luhnow could send north. They are also one of the teams most interested in the left-hander.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for LHP Justin Nicolino (A), C A.J. Jimenez (AA) and RHP Adonys Cardona (R - GCL).
New York (AL) - CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and Phil Hughes are the unquestioned 1-2-3 atop the Yankees rotation, but Freddy Garcia is sporting 5.23 ERA and Andy Pettitte is out until late August with an ankle injury.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $13 million for OF Tyler Austin (A), RHP Bryan Mitchell (A) and RHP Mark Montgomery (A - Advanced).
Atlanta - The Braves could chase Wandy as insurance more than anything. Tim Hudson's ankle is acting up again, and a bit of the shine has been rubbed off phenom Mike Minor.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $15 million for LHP Sean Gilmartin (AA) and RHP Billy Bullock (RHP).
I think the Braves, Orioles and Blue Jays are or will be in contention for playoff spots. A veteran like Wandy Rodriguez could help stabilize the mid-to-back half of a rotation. Give me the Braves to trump an offer an offer from the O's and Jays to help fend off the Nationals and Mets in the NL East.
contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
thoughts? send me a comment here or @steveinLC.
His contract:
2012 - $10 million, of which approximately $5 million is still owed.
2013 - $13 million.
2014 - $13 million. This year becomes a player option if Rodriguez is traded during the length of the deal.
The market:
The addition of the second wild-card slot in each league keeps more teams in the playoff race, hence (potentially) more buyers. Those new to contention like Baltimore or Pittsburgh can now compete with richer markets for coveted arms and bats. The Cubs likely have Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster for sale, while the Brewers are mulling an auction for pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. It might be smart to move Wandy before the market is flooded with quality starting pitching.
Interested parties:
Baltimore - The Orioles have been in contact with the Astros regarding Wandy as recently as July 7th. They currently sit in second place in the competitive AL East, firmly entrenched for one of the wild-card spots. Pitchers Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter were demoted, leaving Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen as anchors at the top of the rotation.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Parker Bridwell, LHP Tim Berry and LHP Mike Belfiore.
Texas - The two-time defending AL champs will have two strong options in Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, but Derek Holland has been hurt and inconsistent and Roy Oswalt plain bad. They will ask Philadelphia about Cole Hamels and Milwaukee about Zack Greinke.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Cody Buckel (AA), RHP Luke Jackson (A-Advanced) and C Brett Nicholas (A-Advanced).
Toronto - No fault of a stout middle of the order anchored by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus, the Jays stand mired in last place in the AL East. Three of their starters are on the disabled list, with one out until next year in Kyle Drabek. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said he prefers players with multiple years of club control remaining beyond this one, something Jeff Luhnow could send north. They are also one of the teams most interested in the left-hander.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for LHP Justin Nicolino (A), C A.J. Jimenez (AA) and RHP Adonys Cardona (R - GCL).
New York (AL) - CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and Phil Hughes are the unquestioned 1-2-3 atop the Yankees rotation, but Freddy Garcia is sporting 5.23 ERA and Andy Pettitte is out until late August with an ankle injury.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $13 million for OF Tyler Austin (A), RHP Bryan Mitchell (A) and RHP Mark Montgomery (A - Advanced).
Atlanta - The Braves could chase Wandy as insurance more than anything. Tim Hudson's ankle is acting up again, and a bit of the shine has been rubbed off phenom Mike Minor.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $15 million for LHP Sean Gilmartin (AA) and RHP Billy Bullock (RHP).
I think the Braves, Orioles and Blue Jays are or will be in contention for playoff spots. A veteran like Wandy Rodriguez could help stabilize the mid-to-back half of a rotation. Give me the Braves to trump an offer an offer from the O's and Jays to help fend off the Nationals and Mets in the NL East.
contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
thoughts? send me a comment here or @steveinLC.
Friday, July 06, 2012
Astros 2013 managerial candidates, round one.
It should surprise no one that Jeff Luhnow will replace Brad Mills once the 2012 season ends. He will likely bring in a mix of those with managerial experience, and those new to the ranks that might work well with a young club. Hopefully, Jim Crane and Luhnow don't continue the old buddy system employed under Drayton McLane and Tal Smith and give Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio or Brad Ausmus the job on name recognition.
So where might he start?
Tim Bogar - The former Astros shortstop is currently serving as Bobby Valetine's bench coach in Boston. He has stops on the minor-league managerial circuit include Astros affiliates Greeneville and Lexington, and in the Indians system with the Double-A Akron. Bogar interviewed for the vacant Astros position that went to Brad Mills in 2009.
Jose Oquendo - Luhnow is familiar Oquendo, having been a part of two World Series- winning organizations in 2006 and 2011. He serves as the third base coach for new manager Mike Matheny, as position he held for Tony LaRussa since 2000. In 1997, he managed the team's rookie level affiliate in New Jersey. He could be seen as an early front-runner, especially if he feels he was unjustly passed over for the job when given to Matheny.
Tony Pena - The 18-year Major League veteran has previously managed the Kansas CIty Royals from 2002-05, and is Joe Girardi's bench coach with the Yankees. He was voted Manager of the Year in 2003 after guiding the Royals to a 83-79 record before being replaced during the 2005 season. He has previous stops with the Astros Triple-A affiliate in New Orleans from 1999-2001, and as the bench coach in Houston in 2002.
Joey Cora - Like Bogar, Cora has cut his teeth on the minor league coaching circuit, with stops in the Expos, Mets and Cubs farms over the course of four years, before being added to Ozzie Guillen's staff in Chicago from 2004-11. He followed Guillen south to join him with Marlins in 2012.
Dave Martinez - He has been tutored as part of the highly successful staff in Tampa Bay since being named bench coach in 2007. While light on lower-level coaching experience, Martinez has been a part of a Rays staff that has reached the playoffs three times and the World Series in 2008. Martinez would likely get a ringing endorsement from Rays manager Joe Maddon should he pursue a managerial position this offseason. His youth and pedigree could make him a hot commodity.
What this means:
While Oquendo might have the flash, I like Dave Martinez as a dark horse to land this job. You can't underestimate the success the Tampa staff has had when dealing with the Boston and New York superpowers in the AL East. I think this mindset could serve the Astros well as they become a member of the American League in 2013.
So where might he start?
Tim Bogar - The former Astros shortstop is currently serving as Bobby Valetine's bench coach in Boston. He has stops on the minor-league managerial circuit include Astros affiliates Greeneville and Lexington, and in the Indians system with the Double-A Akron. Bogar interviewed for the vacant Astros position that went to Brad Mills in 2009.
Jose Oquendo - Luhnow is familiar Oquendo, having been a part of two World Series- winning organizations in 2006 and 2011. He serves as the third base coach for new manager Mike Matheny, as position he held for Tony LaRussa since 2000. In 1997, he managed the team's rookie level affiliate in New Jersey. He could be seen as an early front-runner, especially if he feels he was unjustly passed over for the job when given to Matheny.
Tony Pena - The 18-year Major League veteran has previously managed the Kansas CIty Royals from 2002-05, and is Joe Girardi's bench coach with the Yankees. He was voted Manager of the Year in 2003 after guiding the Royals to a 83-79 record before being replaced during the 2005 season. He has previous stops with the Astros Triple-A affiliate in New Orleans from 1999-2001, and as the bench coach in Houston in 2002.
Joey Cora - Like Bogar, Cora has cut his teeth on the minor league coaching circuit, with stops in the Expos, Mets and Cubs farms over the course of four years, before being added to Ozzie Guillen's staff in Chicago from 2004-11. He followed Guillen south to join him with Marlins in 2012.
Dave Martinez - He has been tutored as part of the highly successful staff in Tampa Bay since being named bench coach in 2007. While light on lower-level coaching experience, Martinez has been a part of a Rays staff that has reached the playoffs three times and the World Series in 2008. Martinez would likely get a ringing endorsement from Rays manager Joe Maddon should he pursue a managerial position this offseason. His youth and pedigree could make him a hot commodity.
What this means:
While Oquendo might have the flash, I like Dave Martinez as a dark horse to land this job. You can't underestimate the success the Tampa staff has had when dealing with the Boston and New York superpowers in the AL East. I think this mindset could serve the Astros well as they become a member of the American League in 2013.
Labels: Astros, Dave Martinez, Joey Cora, Jose Oquendo, Tim Bogar, Tony Pena
Thursday, July 05, 2012
The ramifications of the Carlos Lee trade.
As reported by several sources, Carlos Lee had been traded to Miami, whom I targeted as a legitimate trade partner here.
Moving Lee likely results in Brett Wallace being recalled from Oklahoma City, and given first base repetitions through the end of 2012. Wallace is a likely seat warmer for franchise top prospect Jon Singleton, but it gives the front office a chance to see if Wallace's bat sees him move to designated hitter, or traded, once Singleton takes over.
The Astros acquired Marlins top prospect Matt Dominguez, along with left-handed pitcher Rob Rasmussen, in return for Lee and a sizeable chunk of his remaining $18 million salary.
Dominguez profiles as a slick glove at third base, but his bat never developed much past mediocre in his minor league ascent since the Marlins drafted him in the first round in 2007. This acquisition helps fill in the organizational sink hole that is third base depth, and likely provides competition for Chris Johnson. He could be seen as Johnson's replacement should the Astros cash in on his offensive revival this year.
That competition begins now, as Dominguez will be reporting to the Astros in Pittsburgh.
Rasmussen had a 4-7 record and 3.90 ERA for the Marlins A affiliate in Jupiter, Florida. Rasmussen is slight of build, but has 75 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP in 87.2 innings this year, and ranked as the number nine overall prospect in the Marlins system. According to his MiLB profile, his contract has already been assigned to AA Corpus Christi. MLB's Jonathan Mayo profiles him as a number four type starter on the major league level.
The fact that Luhnow received anything for Lee, while having to pick up a large of portion Lee's remaining money, is promising. Lee wanted to remain in Houston, but he had become a round-hole, square peg, problem for the Astros. His presence didn't result in success on the major league level for the Astros for, at least, the last two years.
What I think it means:
Brett Wallace is the starting first baseman for the balance of 2012. While Zachary Leving suggests that Chris Johnson and Matt Downs could see time at first base, it benefits the franchise most to see what they have in Wallace. I'd hope Brad Mills isn't going to get cute with a platoon, because it does the Astros no good long-term to sit Wallace against left-handed pitching.
Chris Johnson needs to keep his bags packed. Injury aside, Chris Johnson has been okay with the bat and atrocious in the field. Dominguez is, right now, the opposite of that, and the team will likely give Dominguez a chance to work out his issues on the major league level.
Jeff Juhnow's determination should not be understated. Rebuffed by Lee this past weekend, Luhnow moved to a list of teams Lee couldn't block a trade too. He received a solid return for a player who didn't fit anymore. Trades moving Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and possibly Chris Johnson are coming, in my opinion, sooner rather than closer to the July 31st trade deadline. There's simply no sense in waiting until any of the rumored trade pieces get hurt or lose any substantial value.
Moving Lee likely results in Brett Wallace being recalled from Oklahoma City, and given first base repetitions through the end of 2012. Wallace is a likely seat warmer for franchise top prospect Jon Singleton, but it gives the front office a chance to see if Wallace's bat sees him move to designated hitter, or traded, once Singleton takes over.
The Astros acquired Marlins top prospect Matt Dominguez, along with left-handed pitcher Rob Rasmussen, in return for Lee and a sizeable chunk of his remaining $18 million salary.
Dominguez profiles as a slick glove at third base, but his bat never developed much past mediocre in his minor league ascent since the Marlins drafted him in the first round in 2007. This acquisition helps fill in the organizational sink hole that is third base depth, and likely provides competition for Chris Johnson. He could be seen as Johnson's replacement should the Astros cash in on his offensive revival this year.
That competition begins now, as Dominguez will be reporting to the Astros in Pittsburgh.
Rasmussen had a 4-7 record and 3.90 ERA for the Marlins A affiliate in Jupiter, Florida. Rasmussen is slight of build, but has 75 strikeouts and a 1.35 WHIP in 87.2 innings this year, and ranked as the number nine overall prospect in the Marlins system. According to his MiLB profile, his contract has already been assigned to AA Corpus Christi. MLB's Jonathan Mayo profiles him as a number four type starter on the major league level.
The fact that Luhnow received anything for Lee, while having to pick up a large of portion Lee's remaining money, is promising. Lee wanted to remain in Houston, but he had become a round-hole, square peg, problem for the Astros. His presence didn't result in success on the major league level for the Astros for, at least, the last two years.
What I think it means:
Brett Wallace is the starting first baseman for the balance of 2012. While Zachary Leving suggests that Chris Johnson and Matt Downs could see time at first base, it benefits the franchise most to see what they have in Wallace. I'd hope Brad Mills isn't going to get cute with a platoon, because it does the Astros no good long-term to sit Wallace against left-handed pitching.
Chris Johnson needs to keep his bags packed. Injury aside, Chris Johnson has been okay with the bat and atrocious in the field. Dominguez is, right now, the opposite of that, and the team will likely give Dominguez a chance to work out his issues on the major league level.
Jeff Juhnow's determination should not be understated. Rebuffed by Lee this past weekend, Luhnow moved to a list of teams Lee couldn't block a trade too. He received a solid return for a player who didn't fit anymore. Trades moving Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and possibly Chris Johnson are coming, in my opinion, sooner rather than closer to the July 31st trade deadline. There's simply no sense in waiting until any of the rumored trade pieces get hurt or lose any substantial value.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Luhnow hints at imminent roster additions
At 32-49 and the halfway point of the season, it should be obvious that the Astros won't be playing in October.
Any realist knew that this year would be one hoping the parent club would remain competitive. Another draft class would be added to a slowly improving farm, and second-year players Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez might begin a slow ascent to become clubhouse leaders. Turnover was expected as several veterans were expected to be moved. On-field accountability would be paramount, and those caught slacking could face replacement.
General Manager Jeff Luhnow, observing the AAA club at Oklahoma city this week, hinted that new charges could be on the way. In an interview with Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman, Luhnow cited second baseman Jimmy Paredes as one who could be in Houston soon.
Any realist knew that this year would be one hoping the parent club would remain competitive. Another draft class would be added to a slowly improving farm, and second-year players Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez might begin a slow ascent to become clubhouse leaders. Turnover was expected as several veterans were expected to be moved. On-field accountability would be paramount, and those caught slacking could face replacement.
General Manager Jeff Luhnow, observing the AAA club at Oklahoma city this week, hinted that new charges could be on the way. In an interview with Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman, Luhnow cited second baseman Jimmy Paredes as one who could be in Houston soon.
"He (Paredes) has made a position change and done well...I think, the one thing we know about Jimmy is that he is capable of playing multiple positions, so I wouldn't hesitate to bring him up even if it were for a different position. He's been working on some things down here, in terms of pitch selection and I think he's gotten better.”
Luhnow seems to imply that the switch-hitting Paredes would come up to play somewhere other than second base.
So who is in most danger of losing at-bats if and when Paredes is called up, or will he get his chance due to the trade of a current starter?
Jordan Schafer - He seemed to be locked-in to the leadoff spot after coming over in the Michael Bourn deal last year. His eighteen stolen bases rank eleventh in the league, but his strikeout rate (and the emergence of waiver claim Justin Maxwell) have torpedoed any realistic chance he could be trusted with an everyday spot.
Chris Johnson - Johnson's offensive output has rebounded after a down 2011, yet his bat is little better than average, on track for only 12 home runs. His fielding has fared far worse. His UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of -3.4 is second-worst across the major leagues, possibly making him more attractive as a DH.
Brian Bogusevic - Possessing good speed and possibly the best right-field arm for the Astros since Richard Hidalgo, Brian Bogusevic probably profiles better as a fourth outfielder on a good team. His average now sits at .219 with only six home runs.
While Schafer and Bogusevic are likely starting because the Astros aren't sitting on anything better now, I think Paredes will come up to play third base in place of Johnson. At 28, Johnson still plays inexpensively and could net the Astros a solid package of mid-level prospects, possibly on par with what was recently offered for Carlos Lee. He is unlikely to figure into any long-term plans for the team, so it could behoove Luhnow to move Johnson while his bat is producing. I believe teams like Diamondbacks or Indians could find Johnson a suitable replacement due to injury (Lonnie Chisenhall) or ineffectiveness (Ryan Roberts). The Dodgers are another option, and the phone lines are likely still warm between Houston and Chavez Ravine.
Sunday, July 01, 2012
Trade options for Carlos Lee post veto.
After 36 hours of hand-wringing, Carlos Lee has decided to remain with the Houston Astros, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.
So what destination makes the most sense for Lee now? Since his unique no-trade provision was made public, he is believed to be adverse to playing on the West Coast and for teams who are regular playoff contenders. The idea behind that is teams not in contention would have less need for his services, giving him a better chance of staying in Houston.
Taking that into consideration, here is who I believe to be on his no-trade list:
Seattle
Oakland
Los Angeles (NL)
Los Angeles (AL)
San Diego
Arizona
Boston
New York (AL)
Philadelphia
Detroit
New York (NL)
Chicago (NL)
Chicago (AL)
According to @RoundRockTim the Rangers are a part of the no-trade also.
That leaves us with:
Miami
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Milwaukee
St Louis
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Washington
Kansas City
Cleveland
Toronto
On that list, I believe Cleveland, Miami, Toronto and Pittsburgh to make the most sense.
Cleveland - Their combined OPS for first base is .279, while slugging is .335. Lee checks in at .335 (OBP) and .405 (SLG) and would replace journeyman Casey Kotchman at first.
Potential compensation: Lee and $5 million for catcher Chun Chen or left-handed pitcher Elvis Araujo.
Miami - After a strong 2010-11, Gaby Sanchez has bottomed out this year, batting .194 with only two home runs. Replacements Logan Morrison have fared slightly better.
Potential compensation: Lee and $6 million for left-handed reliever Dan Jennings.
Toronto - Anchored by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus, the Blue Jays appear to not be in need of more offense. The designated hitter slot, minus Encarnacion's 43 games, has offered the Jays only one home run and four RBI.
Lee allows the Jays stabilization at DH and at first base. He could also be packaged with Wandy Rodriguez should the Jays find the need to patch their starting rotation.
Potential compensation: Lee and $4 million for third baseman Matthew Dean.
Pittsburgh - The Pirates could use a veteran presence to mesh with the All-Star Andrew McCutchen and a resurgent Pedro Alvarez. Casey McGahee, Garrett Jones and Matt Hague have performed at a level just below what Carlos Lee could provide.
Potential compensation: Lee and $6 million for left-handed starter Colton Cain.
Most likely destination: Cleveland with Toronto a close second.
Some statistical data provided by Fangraphs and cbs.sports.com.
So what destination makes the most sense for Lee now? Since his unique no-trade provision was made public, he is believed to be adverse to playing on the West Coast and for teams who are regular playoff contenders. The idea behind that is teams not in contention would have less need for his services, giving him a better chance of staying in Houston.
Taking that into consideration, here is who I believe to be on his no-trade list:
Seattle
Oakland
Los Angeles (NL)
Los Angeles (AL)
San Diego
Arizona
Boston
New York (AL)
Philadelphia
Detroit
New York (NL)
Chicago (NL)
Chicago (AL)
According to @RoundRockTim the Rangers are a part of the no-trade also.
That leaves us with:
Miami
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Milwaukee
St Louis
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Washington
Kansas City
Cleveland
Toronto
On that list, I believe Cleveland, Miami, Toronto and Pittsburgh to make the most sense.
Cleveland - Their combined OPS for first base is .279, while slugging is .335. Lee checks in at .335 (OBP) and .405 (SLG) and would replace journeyman Casey Kotchman at first.
Potential compensation: Lee and $5 million for catcher Chun Chen or left-handed pitcher Elvis Araujo.
Miami - After a strong 2010-11, Gaby Sanchez has bottomed out this year, batting .194 with only two home runs. Replacements Logan Morrison have fared slightly better.
Potential compensation: Lee and $6 million for left-handed reliever Dan Jennings.
Toronto - Anchored by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus, the Blue Jays appear to not be in need of more offense. The designated hitter slot, minus Encarnacion's 43 games, has offered the Jays only one home run and four RBI.
Lee allows the Jays stabilization at DH and at first base. He could also be packaged with Wandy Rodriguez should the Jays find the need to patch their starting rotation.
Potential compensation: Lee and $4 million for third baseman Matthew Dean.
Pittsburgh - The Pirates could use a veteran presence to mesh with the All-Star Andrew McCutchen and a resurgent Pedro Alvarez. Casey McGahee, Garrett Jones and Matt Hague have performed at a level just below what Carlos Lee could provide.
Potential compensation: Lee and $6 million for left-handed starter Colton Cain.
Most likely destination: Cleveland with Toronto a close second.
Some statistical data provided by Fangraphs and cbs.sports.com.
Labels: Astros, Blue Jays, Carlos Lee, Indians, Marlins, Pirates.
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