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General Astros thought and opinion.Sunday, August 19, 2012
Mills let go in inevitable move
In a move that has seen support for both parties, Brad Mills was fired last night by the Astros. GM Jeff Luhnow also went straight Drayton-style and canned hitting coach Mike Barnett and first base coach Bobby Meachem.
Let's not feel sorry for the now deposed skipper. He did get his chance to manage a major league club after years of proving his leadership worth in the minor leagues and alongside Terry Francona in Boston. The club hired him only after Manny Acta turned down the offer in 2009 to take the Cleveland Indians managerial position.
In a move at least a year overdue, the Astros decided to enter a partial sell-mode, and pie off veterans Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman in 2010. Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn traveled east a year later, and the real blood-letting came earlier this summer.
Jeff Luhnow traded 25% of the major league roster, in what was regarded as a "second 2012 draft" for the Astros. Those transactions stripped the team of real relevance, minus maybe All-Star Jose Altuve. Mills was left to peacemeal a roster together from the scraps left to him by the front-office.
Mills had his warts, too, mainly giving middling veterans the chance at regular playing time over more promising talent. Was it his fault veterans like Scott Moore, Matt Downs and Steve Pearce were on the major league roster in lieu of calling others up?
The Arizona alum leaves the Astros with a 171-274 record during the 2010-2012 seasons.
Let's not feel sorry for the now deposed skipper. He did get his chance to manage a major league club after years of proving his leadership worth in the minor leagues and alongside Terry Francona in Boston. The club hired him only after Manny Acta turned down the offer in 2009 to take the Cleveland Indians managerial position.
In a move at least a year overdue, the Astros decided to enter a partial sell-mode, and pie off veterans Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman in 2010. Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn traveled east a year later, and the real blood-letting came earlier this summer.
Jeff Luhnow traded 25% of the major league roster, in what was regarded as a "second 2012 draft" for the Astros. Those transactions stripped the team of real relevance, minus maybe All-Star Jose Altuve. Mills was left to peacemeal a roster together from the scraps left to him by the front-office.
Mills had his warts, too, mainly giving middling veterans the chance at regular playing time over more promising talent. Was it his fault veterans like Scott Moore, Matt Downs and Steve Pearce were on the major league roster in lieu of calling others up?
The Arizona alum leaves the Astros with a 171-274 record during the 2010-2012 seasons.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Don't cry for Brett Wallace
I tweeted this statement August 9:
"brett wallace's performance
tonight definitely justifying the decision to sit him tuesday and
wednesday"
That statement is presumably
directed towards Brad Mills, whose lineup decisions have come under heavy
criticism over the last 18 months. Under Ed Wade's regime, it was
assumed Mills acted on his own in sitting Wallace in favor of a right-handed
replacement.
When Jeff Luhnow replaced Wade in
December, it was assumed Wallace would get his chance when Carlos Lee and his
contract were moved. Lee was traded to Miami on July 4, and Wallace was
expected to take over first base. That chance in turn went to third
baseman Chris Johnson (before his trade to Arizona), and now utilitymen Matt
Downs, Scott Moore and Steve Pearce, all of whom were minor league signings or
waiver claims by the Astros over the past two years.
So why is 'the man' keeping Wallace
down? I don't think the decision lies completely with Brad Mills.
The Cardinals made Wallace their
first-round pick in 2008, as a third baseman out of Arizona State.
Oakland acquired him as part of the Matt Holliday trade in 2009, and he landed
in Houston (through Toronto) as a result of the Roy Oswalt trade in July,
2010. Between then, he was moved across the diamond to first base, which
remained his primary position until this spring, when the Astros experimented
with Wallace at third base. He saw time at first base, third base and
shortstop during his roughly three months at AAA Oklahoma City.
In that time the Astros recalled
Scott Moore, and claimed Steve Pearce off waivers.
How has the starting lineup looked
since Wallace's recall on July 28?
|
Wallace only
|
1
|
|
Wallace and Moore
|
3
|
|
Wallace, Moore and Pearce
|
6
|
|
Wallace and Pearce
|
1
|
|
Pearce and Downs
|
2
|
|
Pearce and Moore
|
1
|
|
Pearce and Downs
|
2
|
|
Total Wallace starts
|
11
|
|
Games since July 28
|
15
|
While Wallace hasn't started every
game, he has started 11. Moore has started at right field, third base and
first base while Pearce has started at first base and right field. Wallace
is getting playing time, just not the absolute everyday starting spot many
Astros fans yearned for.
This sounds like the Astros, at
least now, envision Wallace as no more than Moore or Pearce, with maybe
slightly higher upside. Jeff Luhnow likely scouted Wallace as a member of
the St. Louis front-office, so he might know the upside and downside to his
game more than anyone. If he believed
Wallace was clearly the better option over Moore or Pearce, it would likely be
displayed on the field. Wallace, Pearce and Moore are likely fighting between themselves for spots on the 2013 roster.
This is squarely in line with the “throw
it against the wall and see what sticks” philosophy that the Astros front
office has displayed, whether it be with major league roster or in trade. Collect as many assets as you can, regardless
of pedigree. The best performing of the
groups will be seeing the field. Those
that aren’t could fall by the wayside.
That might not be fair, but it could
be effective.
So while Brad Mills daily lineup
machinations might leave a bit to be desired, it might not be entirely his idea
to platoon Wallace.
find me on twitter: @steveinLC
Friday, August 10, 2012
Springer and Deshields get promoted.
George Springer has been promoted to Double-A Corpus Christi, according to Lancaster play-by-play broadcaster Jason Schwartz. Earlier this morning, Delino DeShields announced through his official twitter page that he has bypassed High-A Lancaster, and will join Springer in the Hooks starting lineup.
Springer, hitting .316/22/82 with 28 stolen bases at Lancaster, will join recent acquisition Robbie Grossman and minor-league veteran Drew Locke in the Hooks outfield. A strikeout rate of 26.2% must improve, and his .955 OPS could even off a bit removed from the California League. Springer's glove could slot him in centerfield, but that position is occupied by Grossman. This three-week stint should give Springer a nice kick-start in 2013.
Delino Deshields Jr. will bat at the top of the JetHawks lineup. Repeating Lexington in 2012, Deshields has enjoyed his greatest professional accomplishment. Second in the entire minor-league system with 83 stolen bases, and also sports a slash line of .290/10/52 with a .401 OPS. He has already set career highs in home runs, RBI and walks, while also named a South Atlantic League All-Star in June.
The promotion of Springer was expected by the beginning of 2013, so it didn't come as a big surprise. Deshields could have been expected to at least finish the year with the JetHawks, and see a promotion to Corpus Christi sometime in 2013.
Thursday, August 02, 2012
Astros targets for PTBNL from White Sox and Jays
The Astros still have two players coming their as a result of the Toronto and Chicago trades of the last two weeks. Keep an eye on some of these names as we wait for the official announcements.
Toronto:
Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - A Lansing) - The University of Florida product has put up better numbers out of the bullpen for A-level Lansing in 2012 (30K in 24.1 IP/1.48 ERA/.904 WHIP) , but has pitched exclusively as a starter the last six weeks. The Astros are in need of power bullpen arms, and he could make an interesting conversion to reliever.
John Stilson - (RHP - AA New Hampshire) - Drafted out of Texas A&M in 2011, Stilson has already advanced to the AA level for the Jays. Luhnow has had an eye on Texas-area talent in trade (Colton Cain, Robbie Grossman), so Stilson could be a target to head south for the summer.
Jeremy Gabryszwski (RHP - Rookie-level Bluefield) - Another local product (Crosby, TX), has crafted a nice start to 2012, with a 2.38 ERA and only three walks in 34 innings pitched.
He would be more of a long-term project, but the wait could be fruitful if he maintains his current career path.
Chicago:
Jhan Marinez - (RHP - AAA Charlotte) - Marinez has settled into the Charlotte 'pen this year, averaging almost one strikeout per inning. The Astros could be looking for immediate help in the bullpen in 2013, so Marinez seems like a very real option.
Scott Snodgress (LHP - A Winston-Salem) - The White Sox wasted no time in getting Snodgress into their system after drafting him in the fifth round out of Stanford in 2011. He rewarded their faith by posting a 3.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 59.1 IP. Snodgress could be added to the plethora of left-handed arms Jeff Luhnow has acquired in 2012, to include Rudy Owens, Rob Rasmussen and Kevin Chapman.
Jared Mitchell (LH OF- AAA Charlotte) - Though his strikeout rate is a bit high, Mitchell is showing a nice speed-power combo at the upper levels of the Chicago system. With the parent team's outfield in flux, Mitchell would make a nice option to start in right field sometime in 2013.
some statistical analysis culled from baseball-reference.com and mlb.com.
visit me on twitter: @steveinLC
Toronto:
Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - A Lansing) - The University of Florida product has put up better numbers out of the bullpen for A-level Lansing in 2012 (30K in 24.1 IP/1.48 ERA/.904 WHIP) , but has pitched exclusively as a starter the last six weeks. The Astros are in need of power bullpen arms, and he could make an interesting conversion to reliever.
John Stilson - (RHP - AA New Hampshire) - Drafted out of Texas A&M in 2011, Stilson has already advanced to the AA level for the Jays. Luhnow has had an eye on Texas-area talent in trade (Colton Cain, Robbie Grossman), so Stilson could be a target to head south for the summer.
Jeremy Gabryszwski (RHP - Rookie-level Bluefield) - Another local product (Crosby, TX), has crafted a nice start to 2012, with a 2.38 ERA and only three walks in 34 innings pitched.
He would be more of a long-term project, but the wait could be fruitful if he maintains his current career path.
Chicago:
Jhan Marinez - (RHP - AAA Charlotte) - Marinez has settled into the Charlotte 'pen this year, averaging almost one strikeout per inning. The Astros could be looking for immediate help in the bullpen in 2013, so Marinez seems like a very real option.
Scott Snodgress (LHP - A Winston-Salem) - The White Sox wasted no time in getting Snodgress into their system after drafting him in the fifth round out of Stanford in 2011. He rewarded their faith by posting a 3.34 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 59.1 IP. Snodgress could be added to the plethora of left-handed arms Jeff Luhnow has acquired in 2012, to include Rudy Owens, Rob Rasmussen and Kevin Chapman.
Jared Mitchell (LH OF- AAA Charlotte) - Though his strikeout rate is a bit high, Mitchell is showing a nice speed-power combo at the upper levels of the Chicago system. With the parent team's outfield in flux, Mitchell would make a nice option to start in right field sometime in 2013.
some statistical analysis culled from baseball-reference.com and mlb.com.
visit me on twitter: @steveinLC
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Astros post-deadline analysis
After Jeff Luhnow’s purging of the major league roster, the
team’s minor league system received a needed boost of talent. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, JA Happ, Brett
Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Chris Johnson’s departures have established
legitimate depth in a system previously bereft of it.
The particulars:
07/04/12
Carlos Lee traded to Miami for AAA 3B Matt Dominguez and
AA LHP Rob Rasmussen.
07/20/12
RHP’s Brandon Lyon, David Carpenter and LHP JA Happ traded
to Toronto for RHP Francisco Cordero, OF Ben Francisco plus minor-league RHP’s
Asher Wojciechowski, Joe Musgrove, LHP David Rollins, C Carlos Perez and a
player to be named.
07/21/12
RHP Brett Myers traded to Chicago (AL) for LHP Blair
Walters, RHP Matt Heidenreich and a player to be named.
07/25/12
LHP Wandy Rodriguez traded to Pittsburgh for OF Robbie Grossman
and LHP’s Rudy Owens and Colton Cain.
07/29/12
3B Chris Johnson traded to Arizona for OF Marc Krauss and 3B
Bobby Borchering.
Who reports where:
Oklahoma City - Matt
Dominguez and Rudy Owens.
Corpus Christi – Rob Rasmussen,
Asher Wojciechowski, Matt Heidenreich, Robbie Grossman, Marc Krauss and Bobby Borchering.
Lancaster – Colton Cain,
Blair Walters and Carlos Perez.
Lexington – David Rollins.
Greeneville – Joe Musgrove.
In particular, it seems Jeff Luhnow’s focus was
to add left-handed pitching.. Owens is
considered most major-league ready, and might see in Houston by season’s
end. Cain and Rasmussen will start in
their respective locations. Rollins will
continue his development in the Lexington bullpen.
Dominguez was recalled immediately to join the Astros
following his trade, but now holds down the hot corner in Oklahoma City. A second stint in Houston seems like a strong
possibility, if no later than the roster expansion in September. Borchering had been converted to outfield at
AA Visalia, but will return to third base with the Hooks.
To me, the most interesting pieces of the deal were
Wojciechowski, Perez, Krauss and Grossman.
A former first-round pick of Toronto, Wojciechowski ranked
just outside of the Jays blue-chip arms like Daniel Norris, Justin Nicolino and
Noah Syndegaard after a lackluster 2011.
2012 has seen him rebound with a WHIP number of 1.12 (with
Toronto). A strong finish could see him
start 2013 with the Redhawks.
Carlos Perez had the unfortunate luck of being a catcher in
a system rife with great catching talent. He has consistently posted an OPS in .800
range and could have developing doubles power.
His .984 career fielding
percentage and caught stealing percentage of 33% certainly point to him staying
behind the plate on a permanent basis.
A trade to Astros might have been Marc Krauss’ big
break. His power numbers are there with averages of
20 home runs, 70 runs batted in and an .859 OPS over three-plus minor league
seasons. What he doesn’t have is a
position. After 123 games in left field
in 2010, he has been shuttled between first base, third base and more of the
outfield, never playing more than 56 games at any one position in one
season. The Astros could have a large
amount of outfield turnover in 2013, and Krauss’ power could get him a shot in
2013, possibly as the right fielder.
Robbie Grossman - A Houston native, Grossman brings a solid
set of tools to the Corpus Christi outfield.
His power lies more in the doubles range with a career OPS of .767, but
his stolen base rate (68%) could use improvement if he wants to hold down a
spot at the top of a lineup.
some statistical analysis culled from baseball-reference.com
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Astros "make-good" trade targets
Jeff Luhnow seems to have an open mind when making trades. A Low-A catcher here (Jobduan Morales), power left-handed reliever (Kevin Chapman) or a toolsy rookie-league outfielder (DeAndre Toney).
What about players that are blocked, or have fallen out of favor with their organization. Who could be Luhnow's next Matt Dominguez?
Some "make-good" trade candidates for the Astros:
Travis Snider (OF - Toronto) - Snider is still young, but has seen large portions of playing time in 2009-11. He has toiled at AAA Las Vegas, yet has managed a .322/12/55 line waiting for an opportunity to spring with the Jays. He remained at AAA, even after the hand injury to Jose Bautista, getting passed over for Jays #2 prospect in outfielder Anthony Gose. Tao of Stieb agrees that Snider should be allowed to spread his wings. If obtained, Snider could likely become the Astros starting rightfielder. J
Dominic Brown (OF - Philadelphia) - Yearly trade bait, Brown's situation is similar to Snider's. Perhaps the Phillies see him as a replacement for Shane Victorino, or maybe Hunter Pence should Phillies decide to trim salary at the deadline. Almost 25, the bloom is off the rose for Brown, and that could lower his value in trade a bit.
Brian Matusz (SP - Baltimore) - The Orioles first-round pick in 2008, Matusz was demoted to AAA after beginning the year 5-10, a 5.42 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. His best work came in 2010, when he notched 10 wins on a last-place Baltimore club. Jeff Luhnow could see him as a replacement for Wandy Rodriguez, should he be moved to the Orioles or another club.
What about players that are blocked, or have fallen out of favor with their organization. Who could be Luhnow's next Matt Dominguez?
Some "make-good" trade candidates for the Astros:
Travis Snider (OF - Toronto) - Snider is still young, but has seen large portions of playing time in 2009-11. He has toiled at AAA Las Vegas, yet has managed a .322/12/55 line waiting for an opportunity to spring with the Jays. He remained at AAA, even after the hand injury to Jose Bautista, getting passed over for Jays #2 prospect in outfielder Anthony Gose. Tao of Stieb agrees that Snider should be allowed to spread his wings. If obtained, Snider could likely become the Astros starting rightfielder. J
Dominic Brown (OF - Philadelphia) - Yearly trade bait, Brown's situation is similar to Snider's. Perhaps the Phillies see him as a replacement for Shane Victorino, or maybe Hunter Pence should Phillies decide to trim salary at the deadline. Almost 25, the bloom is off the rose for Brown, and that could lower his value in trade a bit.
Brian Matusz (SP - Baltimore) - The Orioles first-round pick in 2008, Matusz was demoted to AAA after beginning the year 5-10, a 5.42 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. His best work came in 2010, when he notched 10 wins on a last-place Baltimore club. Jeff Luhnow could see him as a replacement for Wandy Rodriguez, should he be moved to the Orioles or another club.
Monday, July 09, 2012
23 days left - where does Wandy go?
Since I was 25% correct in naming Carlos Lee's eventual destination, I figured I'd try my hand at finding a home for Wandy Rodriguez.
His contract:
2012 - $10 million, of which approximately $5 million is still owed.
2013 - $13 million.
2014 - $13 million. This year becomes a player option if Rodriguez is traded during the length of the deal.
The market:
The addition of the second wild-card slot in each league keeps more teams in the playoff race, hence (potentially) more buyers. Those new to contention like Baltimore or Pittsburgh can now compete with richer markets for coveted arms and bats. The Cubs likely have Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster for sale, while the Brewers are mulling an auction for pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. It might be smart to move Wandy before the market is flooded with quality starting pitching.
Interested parties:
Baltimore - The Orioles have been in contact with the Astros regarding Wandy as recently as July 7th. They currently sit in second place in the competitive AL East, firmly entrenched for one of the wild-card spots. Pitchers Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter were demoted, leaving Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen as anchors at the top of the rotation.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Parker Bridwell, LHP Tim Berry and LHP Mike Belfiore.
Texas - The two-time defending AL champs will have two strong options in Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, but Derek Holland has been hurt and inconsistent and Roy Oswalt plain bad. They will ask Philadelphia about Cole Hamels and Milwaukee about Zack Greinke.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Cody Buckel (AA), RHP Luke Jackson (A-Advanced) and C Brett Nicholas (A-Advanced).
Toronto - No fault of a stout middle of the order anchored by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus, the Jays stand mired in last place in the AL East. Three of their starters are on the disabled list, with one out until next year in Kyle Drabek. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said he prefers players with multiple years of club control remaining beyond this one, something Jeff Luhnow could send north. They are also one of the teams most interested in the left-hander.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for LHP Justin Nicolino (A), C A.J. Jimenez (AA) and RHP Adonys Cardona (R - GCL).
New York (AL) - CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and Phil Hughes are the unquestioned 1-2-3 atop the Yankees rotation, but Freddy Garcia is sporting 5.23 ERA and Andy Pettitte is out until late August with an ankle injury.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $13 million for OF Tyler Austin (A), RHP Bryan Mitchell (A) and RHP Mark Montgomery (A - Advanced).
Atlanta - The Braves could chase Wandy as insurance more than anything. Tim Hudson's ankle is acting up again, and a bit of the shine has been rubbed off phenom Mike Minor.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $15 million for LHP Sean Gilmartin (AA) and RHP Billy Bullock (RHP).
I think the Braves, Orioles and Blue Jays are or will be in contention for playoff spots. A veteran like Wandy Rodriguez could help stabilize the mid-to-back half of a rotation. Give me the Braves to trump an offer an offer from the O's and Jays to help fend off the Nationals and Mets in the NL East.
contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
thoughts? send me a comment here or @steveinLC.
His contract:
2012 - $10 million, of which approximately $5 million is still owed.
2013 - $13 million.
2014 - $13 million. This year becomes a player option if Rodriguez is traded during the length of the deal.
The market:
The addition of the second wild-card slot in each league keeps more teams in the playoff race, hence (potentially) more buyers. Those new to contention like Baltimore or Pittsburgh can now compete with richer markets for coveted arms and bats. The Cubs likely have Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster for sale, while the Brewers are mulling an auction for pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. It might be smart to move Wandy before the market is flooded with quality starting pitching.
Interested parties:
Baltimore - The Orioles have been in contact with the Astros regarding Wandy as recently as July 7th. They currently sit in second place in the competitive AL East, firmly entrenched for one of the wild-card spots. Pitchers Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter were demoted, leaving Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen as anchors at the top of the rotation.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Parker Bridwell, LHP Tim Berry and LHP Mike Belfiore.
Texas - The two-time defending AL champs will have two strong options in Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison, but Derek Holland has been hurt and inconsistent and Roy Oswalt plain bad. They will ask Philadelphia about Cole Hamels and Milwaukee about Zack Greinke.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for RHP Cody Buckel (AA), RHP Luke Jackson (A-Advanced) and C Brett Nicholas (A-Advanced).
Toronto - No fault of a stout middle of the order anchored by Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus, the Jays stand mired in last place in the AL East. Three of their starters are on the disabled list, with one out until next year in Kyle Drabek. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said he prefers players with multiple years of club control remaining beyond this one, something Jeff Luhnow could send north. They are also one of the teams most interested in the left-hander.
Potential deal: Rodriguez plus $15 million for LHP Justin Nicolino (A), C A.J. Jimenez (AA) and RHP Adonys Cardona (R - GCL).
New York (AL) - CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes and Phil Hughes are the unquestioned 1-2-3 atop the Yankees rotation, but Freddy Garcia is sporting 5.23 ERA and Andy Pettitte is out until late August with an ankle injury.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $13 million for OF Tyler Austin (A), RHP Bryan Mitchell (A) and RHP Mark Montgomery (A - Advanced).
Atlanta - The Braves could chase Wandy as insurance more than anything. Tim Hudson's ankle is acting up again, and a bit of the shine has been rubbed off phenom Mike Minor.
Potential deal: Rodriguez and $15 million for LHP Sean Gilmartin (AA) and RHP Billy Bullock (RHP).
I think the Braves, Orioles and Blue Jays are or will be in contention for playoff spots. A veteran like Wandy Rodriguez could help stabilize the mid-to-back half of a rotation. Give me the Braves to trump an offer an offer from the O's and Jays to help fend off the Nationals and Mets in the NL East.
contract information from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
thoughts? send me a comment here or @steveinLC.
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